Palmeiras’ 0.90 Away Concession Rate Tested by Grêmio

A 28-point gap sets the tone in Porto Alegre

Grêmio host Palmeiras in Serie A’s 28th regular-season round on Sunday, September 20, with kickoff at 14:00 UTC at Arena do Grêmio. The venue holds 60,540, and Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva will referee. The table gives Palmeiras a clear advantage: they sit second with 56 points from 27 matches, while Grêmio are 16th with 28. Flamengo lead on 57, leaving Palmeiras one point from the summit and Grêmio 29 points behind the leaders.

Contrasting momentum

Grêmio’s latest sequence is uneven and points to a side searching for consistency. Their most recent five results are loss, loss, win, draw and loss. Across the 27-match form list, they have 13 defeats, alongside seven wins and seven draws. Palmeiras arrive with stronger momentum: their last five comprise a draw, three wins and a loss, while their full record is 16 wins, eight draws and three defeats.

That difference may shape the opening approach. Grêmio have reason to protect their position and make home advantage count, while Palmeiras can play with the confidence of a team pressing the leader. The visitors’ one-point deficit to Flamengo also gives every match added value at the top of the table.

Home resilience against away control

Grêmio’s home record offers a counterpoint to their overall ranking. They have won seven, drawn three and lost three of 13 home matches, scoring 22 goals and conceding 16. Their average is 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per home game, with three clean sheets.

Palmeiras have been efficient on the road. Their away record stands at seven wins, five draws and two losses, with 24 goals scored and only 12 conceded. They average 1.70 goals per away match, allow 0.90, and have kept six clean sheets. Those numbers suggest Grêmio must turn possession or territory into clear chances, because Palmeiras have regularly limited away opponents.

Formation choices and absences

Grêmio’s most-used shape is 4-1-4-1, deployed in 11 matches, followed by 4-2-3-1 in eight. Palmeiras most often use 4-2-3-1, appearing in 12 matches, with 4-4-2 next on seven. On the supplied evidence, a midfield contest could be central: Grêmio’s single holding midfielder in their preferred system may face Palmeiras’ two-man base, although either side can alter its structure.

Grêmio will be without F. Amuzu and Marlon, both listed as inactive, while Dodi is absent with a knee injury. Palmeiras lose Jefte to a knee injury, Murilo through yellow-card suspension, and Paulinho to a muscle injury. Those absences reduce options, so the selected replacements and the chosen formation could be especially important.

Prediction

Palmeiras’ superior table position, recent form and stronger defensive away figures make them the narrow choice, but Grêmio’s home record should keep the contest close. Prediction: Grêmio 1-2 Palmeiras, with the visitors’ away efficiency edging a match in which the hosts can still threaten at Arena do Grêmio.