Three Home Wins Put Alaves in Command Against Valencia

Alaves bring a perfect home record into Round 6

Alaves host Valencia at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Tuesday, September 15, with kick-off scheduled for 18:00 UTC. The standings create a clear contrast: Alaves sit third with 10 points from five matches, while Valencia are 20th with one point. Alaves are nine points ahead, although Barcelona’s 15-point total means the hosts still trail the leaders by five points.

The home side has won all three of its league matches in Vitoria-Gasteiz. Alaves have scored nine goals at home, an average of 3.00 per game, and conceded two, with two clean sheets. Valencia’s away record is the opposite: two defeats from two matches, one goal scored and four conceded, with no clean sheet.

Different momentum and different priorities

Alaves’ recent sequence reads win, draw, win, win, loss, with the most recent result a defeat. That record still leaves them near the top of the table, but the next fixture offers a chance to respond at home and keep pressure on the teams above them. Valencia’s form is draw, loss, loss, loss, loss. Avoiding another setback would be important for a side currently separated from Alaves by nine points after only five rounds.

The table may shape the risk levels. Alaves could use their strong home numbers to attack and maintain their pursuit of Barcelona, while Valencia may have reason to protect their structure first and seek a route to their first win. That is an assessment of the likely approach, not a confirmed tactical plan.

Alaves’ attacking edge against Valencia’s compact shapes

Alaves have used a 3-5-2 in three matches and a 5-3-2 in two, giving them a consistent three-at-the-back foundation in the supplied data. Valencia have favoured a 5-4-1 in four matches and a 4-4-1-1 in one. The matchup could therefore centre on whether Alaves can turn their extra attacking intent and home scoring rate into chances against Valencia’s more cautious-looking setups.

L. Boyé is Alaves’ clearest finishing threat, with four goals in four appearances. M. Díaz adds three goals and three assists in five appearances, giving the hosts another direct source of production. Valencia’s defensive shape will need to limit both players if the away side is to contain an attack averaging three goals per home game.

Absences add pressure to Valencia’s task

Alaves will be without F. Garces through suspension and M. Rodriguez because of an ankle injury, while A. Manas is questionable with an injury. Those absences could reduce the hosts’ available options, even with their home record providing confidence.

Valencia’s list is longer. S. Canos, J. Copete, M. Diakhaby, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, L. Rioja, G. Rodriguez and U. Sadiq are unavailable, while C. Tarrega is questionable. The missing players may make Valencia’s established defensive approach more important, particularly away from home, where they have yet to win or keep a clean sheet.

Prediction

Alaves 2-0 Valencia. Alaves’ three home wins, stronger scoring numbers and superior recent record point to another controlled result against a Valencia side still searching for its first victory.